Luís Campos Rodrigues | ENT environment & management
The TV (streaming) series “Extrapolations”[1] takes us through eight episodes set between 2037 and 2070, presenting a world facing a growing climate crisis amid profound philosophical and existential questions. The series explores a range of scenarios — from extreme weather events and the extinction of iconic species, to the rise of advanced AI, robotic and biotechnology, and the adoption of geoengineering solutions on the global scale. In the first episode, we get a glimpse at the negotiations of COP42 in 2037, where the main issues relate to migration, water scarcity, and the control of water desalination patents by multinational corporations.
Flashback to the present year of 2025 — and now in real life — the upcoming COP30 will take place from November 10 to 25 in the city of Belém, Brazil, one of the “gateways” to the Amazon.[2] The action agenda will revolve around six thematic axes, each with various objectives[3]:
1) “Transitioning energy, industry and transport” – focused on objectives such as increasing the share of renewables and energy efficiency, universal access to energy, and promoting justice and equity within the decarbonization process.
2) “Stewarding forests, oceans and biodiversity” – targeting the halting and reversal of forest loss and degradation, as well as the conservation and restoration of ecosystems.
3) “Transforming agriculture and food systems” – an axis linked to universal access to food and nutrition, land restoration, and the promotion of more resilient and sustainable agricultural and food systems.
4) “Building resilience for cities, infrastructure and water” – involving areas such as water and waste management, sustainable construction, urban development, mobility and transport, and multilevel governance, among others.
5) “Fostering human and social development” – including objectives like the promotion of resilient health systems; addressing poverty and hunger issues and their connection with climate change; promoting education and capacity-building; and protecting cultural heritage, etc.
6) “Unleashing enablers and accelerators including on financing, technology and capacity building” – a cross-cutting axis encompassing more than ten objectives related to climate adaptation financing, the bioeconomy and biotechnology, AI, carbon markets and accounting standards, and integrity-based information about climate change, among others.
A decade after the promises of the Paris Agreement, the “stubborn” gap between ambition and action persists: the world is still far from the trajectory needed to limit warming to 2°C and, ideally, to no more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial times.[4] In fact, 2024 marked the first year in which the latter threshold was exceeded.[5] Under the previous agreement, countries were expected to submit their third round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by February 2025, covering commitments through 2035.[6] By 27 October 2025, only 62 of the 197 countries had submitted their reports, representing 31% of global emissions.[7] COP30 will review both the compliance with existing NDCs and plans for future commitments. Bold ambitions are needed from key players.
Other topics deserving attention at COP30 include the urgent call to protect tropical forests[8] — and what better setting than a gathering on the frontiers of the Amazon? There is interest in the launch of the Brazil-led initiative “Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF)” at the event. The TFFF represents a new funding model, providing compensation to countries that preserve their tropical forests.[9] Low-income and climate-vulnerable countries will rightly press for increased adaptation finance, which lags behind previous commitments, along with progress in implementing the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) from climate-related disasters.[6] As in previous COPs, the imbalance of fairness persists between smaller countries and islands from the Global South — which have contributed little to climate change — and the major emitters. Once again, bolder, fair, and just actions are urgently needed.
Another prospect at COP30 is reaching an agreement on a set of indicators to measure progress towards the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) related targets — covering areas such as water supply and sanitation, ecosystems and biodiversity, food and agriculture systems, and health impact and services — also established under the Paris Agreement.[6][10]. The UNFCCC published a proposal for these indicators last September.[11] Discussion on the transition to a post-carbon world are also likely to address the extraction of minerals and the communities affected by it, as well as gender issues, with a focus on environmental protection, justice and transparency.[12][13]
Finally, we cannot miss the opportunity to express special recognition and admiration for Jane Goodall, who passed away this past October. We are living in a period where inspirational and humanistic leaders are urgently needed. COP30, and the response to climate change, also depend on that.
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[1] https://www.imdb.com/es-es/title/tt13821126/?ref_=ttep_ov_bk.
[3] https://cop30.br/en/action-agenda.
[4] https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2024.
[5] https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2024-first-year-exceed-15degc-above-pre-industrial-level.
[6] https://enb.iisd.org/belem-un-climate-change-conference-cop30.
[7] https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ndc-tracker.
[8] https://climatenetwork.org/updates/event-portal/cop-30-2/.
[9] https://cop30.br/en/news-about-cop30/tropical-forests-forever-facility-tfff-proposes-innovative-financing-model-for-conservation.
[10] https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/COP-29-Outcomes-on-GGA-Presentation.pdf.
[11]https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/observatory/news-archive-observatory/unfccc-gga-proposed-list-of-indicators-published.
[12] https://climatenetwork.org/2025/10/13/a-global-call-for-equity-in-mineral-value-chains-at-cop30/.
[13] https://cop30.br/en/news-about-cop30/cop30-action-agenda-integrates-gender-perspective-to-accelerate-a-just-and-inclusive-transition.